Concerns over Democratic Backsliding in West Africa

Introduction

Over the past several years, there has been growing concern about the state of democracy in parts of West Africa. A number of countries in the region have experienced coups d’état or attempted power grabs, raising fears of a democratic recession.

In Mali, the military seized power in 2020 and again in 2021, deposing the country’s civilian leadership. Burkina Faso has also seen two military coups since 2022, with the latest one occurring in September. And in Guinea, a military junta took control of the government in 2021 after the president was overthrown.

These developments have sparked alarm among civil society groups, international observers, and regional organizations like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). There are worries that hard-won democratic gains in the region could be eroding, with potentially destabilizing consequences.

The Situation in Mali

Mali’s descent into political turmoil began in 2020, when the military staged a coup that ousted President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta. The coup came amid growing public frustration with the government’s handling of a severe security crisis caused by a jihadist insurgency.

The military junta that took power promised to restore stability and hold new elections within a reasonable timeframe. However, in May 2021, the interim civilian government was overthrown in another coup led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, who then installed himself as the transitional president.

This second coup was widely condemned by Mali’s neighbors, the African Union, and the broader international community. ECOWAS responded by imposing strict sanctions, including the closure of borders and a trade embargo.

The political turmoil in Mali has had a devastating impact on the country’s security situation. The jihadist threat has only grown stronger, with militants expanding their reach and carrying out increasingly deadly attacks on civilians and security forces.

Millions of Malians have been displaced by the violence, and the economy has been crippled. There are also concerns about the military junta’s commitment to holding free and fair elections, with the transition timeline repeatedly pushed back.

The Situation in Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso has also experienced a series of coups in recent years, further destabilizing a country already grappling with a severe security crisis.

In January 2022, the military overthrew President Roch Marc Christian Kaboré, citing his failure to address the jihadist insurgency that has ravaged the country since 2015. The coup was led by Captain Ibrahim Traoré, who later declared himself the new leader of Burkina Faso.

This was the second military takeover in Burkina Faso in less than a year, following a coup in January 2022 that had installed Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba as the transitional president.

Like in Mali, the military in Burkina Faso has promised to restore security and hold elections, but there are doubts about their commitment to democratic governance. The political instability has only worsened the security situation, with jihadist attacks continuing to claim hundreds of lives.

Thousands of Burkinabè have been displaced by the violence, and the economy has been severely disrupted. There are also concerns about human rights abuses and the potential for further unrest as the military consolidates its grip on power.

The Situation in Guinea

In 2021, Guinea experienced its own military coup when President Alpha Condé was overthrown by a group of soldiers led by Colonel Mamady Doumbouya.

Condé had come under intense criticism for changing the constitution to allow himself to run for a third term, a move that was seen by many as an unconstitutional power grab. The coup was welcomed by some Guineans who were tired of Condé’s increasingly authoritarian rule.

However, the military junta that took power has faced criticism for its own heavy-handed tactics and lack of a clear roadmap for a return to civilian rule. There are concerns that the coup could embolden other military elements in the region to follow suit.

ECOWAS has suspended Guinea from the regional bloc and imposed sanctions on the coup leaders, demanding a swift transition to democratic governance. The African Union has also suspended Guinea from the continental organization.

The political upheaval in Guinea has added to the sense of instability in the region, with the potential for spillover effects in neighboring countries. The coup has also raised fears about the future of democracy in a country that had previously been seen as a relative bright spot in a region struggling with authoritarianism.

The Role of Regional Institutions

The repeated coups and attempted power grabs in West Africa have placed a spotlight on the role of regional institutions like ECOWAS in defending democratic norms and the rule of law.

ECOWAS has attempted to take a firm stance against the coups, imposing sanctions and suspending the affected countries from the regional bloc. However, some have criticized the organization for not doing enough to prevent these events from happening in the first place.

There are concerns that ECOWAS, which is largely dominated by the region’s more powerful states, has not been as proactive in addressing the underlying political, economic, and security challenges that have contributed to the erosion of democracy.

Moreover, the response from ECOWAS has not always been consistent or effective. In the case of Guinea, for example, the regional body initially appeared to be more lenient with the coup leaders than it was with the military junta in Mali.

This has led to questions about the credibility and effectiveness of ECOWAS as a defender of democratic values in West Africa. Some critics argue that the organization needs to take a stronger, more principled stand against unconstitutional changes of government, with clear and consistent consequences for those who violate democratic norms.

The Role of External Actors

The democratic backsliding in West Africa has also drawn the attention of external actors, including the United States, the European Union, and other international partners.

These actors have condemned the coups and attempted to use diplomatic pressure and economic leverage to push for a return to constitutional order. They have also provided support for regional mediation efforts led by ECOWAS.

However, some have accused these external actors of being selective in their response, focusing more on the coups that directly threaten their strategic interests in the region.

For example, the United States and the EU have been more vocal in their condemnation of the coups in Mali and Guinea, where they have significant political and economic interests, than they have been about the situation in Burkina Faso.

There are also concerns that the focus on the coups has distracted from the underlying causes of the political instability, such as the security crises, governance challenges, and socioeconomic inequalities that have fueled popular discontent.

Some analysts argue that a more holistic, long-term approach is needed to address the root causes of democratic backsliding in West Africa, one that involves greater investment in governance reforms, security sector support, and inclusive development.

The Implications for the Region

The repeated coups and power grabs in West Africa have had significant implications for the region’s stability and development.

The political turmoil has exacerbated the security crises in countries like Mali and Burkina Faso, where jihadist groups have exploited the instability to expand their influence and carry out increasingly deadly attacks. This has led to a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation, with millions of people displaced and facing acute food insecurity.

The economic impact of the coups has also been severe, with trade disruptions, investment flight, and a decline in public services and infrastructure. This has only compounded the existing challenges of poverty, inequality, and underdevelopment that plague much of the region.

Moreover, the erosion of democratic norms and institutions in West Africa has broader geopolitical implications. It has the potential to undermine regional integration efforts, weaken the credibility of regional organizations like ECOWAS, and create opportunities for external actors like Russia and China to increase their influence in the region.

There are also concerns that the democratic backsliding could have a domino effect, with successful coups in one country inspiring similar attempts in neighboring states. This could lead to a further deterioration of the regional security environment and make it more difficult to address cross-border challenges like organized crime, human trafficking, and the spread of violent extremism.

Conclusion

The democratic recession in West Africa is a complex and multifaceted challenge that requires a concerted, long-term response from regional and international actors.

While the coups and power grabs have understandably drawn much of the attention, it is essential to also address the underlying drivers of instability, such as security threats, governance failures, and socioeconomic inequalities.

This will require a more holistic approach that combines diplomatic pressure, economic incentives, and targeted support for governance reforms, security sector strengthening, and inclusive development. Regional institutions like ECOWAS will need to play a more proactive and consistent role in defending democratic norms and the rule of law.

At the same time, external actors like the United States and the European Union will need to ensure that their engagement in the region is guided by a genuine commitment to democratic principles, rather than narrow strategic interests.

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