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London: Russia Fails to Meet Arms Needs
According to British intelligence, Russia does not produce enough ammunition to make military gains in Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defence suspects that Moscow gives top priority to strengthening the defense industry, but the sector does not meet high war needs. The political leadership demands victories on the battlefield while the logistics officials are left behind. The recent dismissal of Deputy Defence Minister Mikhail Mizintsev is an example of this. He was in charge of the material and technical supply of the army for eight months and was now replaced by Colonel General Alexei Kuzmenko. The Ministry of Defence in London releases daily information on the course of the war, which Moscow criticizes as a disinformation campaign.
USA: Heavy Russian Losses in Ukraine
According to US intelligence, Russia has suffered heavy losses in the offensive war against Ukraine in recent months. Since December, more than 20,000 soldiers have been killed and about 80,000 wounded, said John Kirby, the communications director of the National Security Council in Washington. It remains unclear whether the figures refer to Ukraine as a whole or only to the fighting around the eastern Ukrainian city of Bachmut. Independent verification of these numbers is not possible. About half of the fallen soldiers on the Russian side were mercenaries of the Wagner group, according to Kirby. Most of them were Russian prisoners who were sent to war without sufficient combat or combat training.
Media Report: Talks on Grain Agreement
According to a “high-ranking Ukrainian source,” talks are scheduled for tomorrow on the UN and Turkey-mediated grain agreement. All sides are said to be involved. Russia has indicated that it does not want to continue the agreement beyond May 18. The reason given is the failure to meet a list of demands to facilitate its own cereal and fertilizer exports.
Ukraine Accuses Russia of Targeting Residential Areas
Ukraine has accused Russia of adopting a new tactic with targeted missile strikes on residential areas. “There is no doubt that they are making direct attacks on civilian apartment buildings or places where there are many houses of the civilian population,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the presidential office, in a Ukrainian television broadcast. Moscow wants to provoke premature counter-offensives by Kiev, among other things. The Kremlin wants to test whether Ukraine is capable of protecting its airspace, Podolyak said.
In the past few days, there have been several Russian rocket attacks with civilian casualties, particularly in the city of Uman, where a missile strike on a residential building on Friday resulted in many fatalities. Russian cruise missiles also caused severe damage in Pavlohrad, in the Dnipropetrovsk region, and killed at least two people. Kiev denies that military targets were hit.
London: Russian Arms Industry Falling Behind
According to British intelligence, Russia does not have enough ammunition to make significant progress in offensives in Ukraine. Although Moscow gives top priority to strengthening the defense industry, the sector still does not meet high war needs, according to the British Ministry of Defence’s short report. Russia’s political leadership demands victories on the battlefield while logistics officials lag behind.
As an example, the British cite the recent dismissal of Deputy Defence Minister Mikhail Mizintsev, who was responsible for the material and technical supply of the army for eight months. Last week, his replacement was confirmed with Colonel General Alexei Kuzmenko, the former deputy director of the National Guard. Since the start of the Russian offensive in Ukraine, the Ministry of Defence in London has been releasing daily information on the progress of the war, citing intelligence information. Moscow accuses London of running a disinformation campaign.
Media Report: No Clearer NATO Membership Perspective for Ukraine
According to the dpa news agency, the hopes of Ukraine for a clearer NATO membership perspective are likely to be disappointed for the time being. In the past, NATO members such as the USA and Germany had made it clear behind closed doors that they did not want to make any commitments that went beyond a vague NATO declaration from 2008. At that time, heads of state and government agreed that Ukraine and Georgia should become NATO members. However, there was no concrete time or roadmap for this. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently called on NATO to open the way for his country to join the Western military alliance at its next summit in July.
Russian Village in Bryansk Region Under Fire
According to the local governor, Ukrainian forces have shelled a village in the Russian Bryansk region bordering Ukraine. “In the morning, Ukrainian forces shelled the village of Kurkovichi in the Starodubsky district,” wrote Bryansk Governor Alexander Bogomaz via Telegram. There were no casualties, but a fire broke out in a household.
Russia: Grain Agreement in Limbo Due to Blockade of Russian Exports
There has been no progress in extending the grain agreement, which expires on May 18, according to Russian sources. Parts of the agreement that would allow the Moscow government to export its own agricultural products via the Black Sea ports are not being adhered to, wrote Andrey Ledenew from the Russian Embassy in the US on Telegram. Due to the “sanctions strategy” of the West, there is still no solution to the financial and logistical problems of shipping Russian grain and fertilizers. “Importing agricultural equipment to Russia is difficult.”
USA: 20,000 Russians Killed Since December
According to John Kirby, the communications director of the National Security Council, citing estimates from US intelligence, more than 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in the fighting for the eastern Ukrainian city of Bachmut since December. About half of them were soldiers of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, Kirby said. Most of these mercenaries were Russian prisoners who were sent to war without sufficient combat or combat training.
The figures cannot be independently verified. Kirby went on to say that the total number of soldiers killed and injured on the Russian side since December in the fighting for Bachmut and other parts of Ukraine is estimated by intelligence agencies to be over 100,000. He did not provide figures for the Ukrainian military casualties.
Zelensky: Air Defense Must Be More Effective
Following the latest Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced a more effective air defense. “We are working with our partners as actively as possible to make the protection of our airspace even more reliable,” Zelensky said in his nightly video message.
The reason for Zelensky’s statement was Russian missile attacks with cruise missiles and rockets on Monday night and during the day. Several projectiles hit Pavlohrad in central Ukraine, injuring at least 34 people. Numerous buildings were destroyed or damaged.
Read the Monday liveblog here.
A week after their expulsion, a group of German diplomats has left Russia. Wagner chief Prigozhin warned Moscow of possible consequences of a Ukrainian offensive.