What if Trump Becomes President Again?
Europe must consider the possibility of Trump becoming President of the United States again. What would that mean for NATO and European defense? And what about Ukraine? Or maybe things will turn out differently after all? What if? This question is currently being heard frequently in Brussels, in the corridors of the EU Commission, in the offices of members of parliament, and at press conferences. The idea that Donald Trump could become US President a second time usually brings panic or disbelief. Or a pleading “Not again!” from those who remember how Trump ridiculed Europeans and wanted to abolish NATO during his first term.
Emmanuel Macron recently recommended calm when dealing with Trump. “I always follow the same philosophy,” France’s President confided in journalists, “I take the heads of state as the people send them to me.” After all, Macron had to admit that there were ups and downs with Trump. The flattering embraces, the constant patting on the back with the message that these two statesmen could get along well – the Frenchman’s strategy did not work.
Trump simply didn’t do what Macron wanted. Not in the Syrian civil war, not with the withdrawal from the Paris agreement, not with the tariffs on steel and aluminum. And President’s wife Brigitte Macron had to hear from Trump that she was in good shape, “in such good physical shape” – a compliment that is not considered as such in France.
Will the US still ensure the security of Europe?
Macron is one of the few EU leaders who has already publicly commented on the possibility of Trump’s return. Among Europe’s heads of state and government, there is no coordinated strategy, but it is clear to everyone: Washington will not support Ukraine in its war against Russia as it has done before. And that means that the Americans will no longer be responsible for the security of Europe.
“It’s not fair,” Trump exclaimed to the Europeans in 2017 during his first visit to NATO’s headquarters in Brussels, that US taxpayers contribute so much to the security of Europeans while many EU countries have “fallen behind on their financial obligations.”
Will the US nuclear umbrella for Europe be preserved?
What was mildly dismissed by EU leaders back then is now something they will probably have to take seriously. The Americans have so far paid for almost half of all military assistance to Ukraine, and Trump will want to change that. “We, as NATO partners but also as partners in the European Union, need to make preparations,” demands CDU MEP Michael Gahler. It is not particularly wise to not prepare for this scenario just because we don’t like it.
The foreign and security policy expert believes that the US nuclear umbrella for Europe will be preserved – this is indicated by the think tanks close to Trump. However, Gahler does not expect such generosity in the field of conventional armament.
Hope that it won’t be so bad
It is undisputed in Brussels that Europe must do more for its own defense. But the dimensions this will take, how many additional billions will need to be raised from national budgets, which will then be missing elsewhere – there is a lot of silence on this matter.
And there is also hope that maybe it won’t be so bad after all. Trump can lose, that possibility is recognized. And even if he manages to win a second term in the White House, there may still be Republicans who have a transatlantic mindset.
Baerbock hopes for supporters of “rules-based order”
Germany’s Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, sees this as an option. In September, the Green Party politician reported after talks in Washington that she understood many Republicans there to believe that despite differing perspectives, there is an understanding that supporting Ukraine is central and important. Because it also concerns the “support of the rules-based order.”
As for whether Trump would show interest in the rules-based order and adhere to it in a second term, nobody in Brussels is currently making any predictions.